Insurability of the agroecological transition in the context of climate change

• Title of the project: "Insurability of the agroecological transition in the context of climate change"; INRAE & Le Mans university.
  • PhD student: Pablo Yepes Ilano.
  • Affiliated unit: INRAE, UMR 211 - Agronomy.
  • Co-supervision:
    • Corentin Barbu (INRAE).
    • Martial Phélippé-Guinvarc'h (Le Mans university).
  • Doctoral school: ABIES - Agriculture, alimentation, biologie, environnement et santé.
  • Project duration: 2024 – 2027.

Project summary:

A change in practices towards agroecological transition involves significant risks for the farmer and the sector, which sometimes hinders its adoption. The uncertainties related to the lack of experience with climate change reinforce the need to secure the transition. In this context, we propose to develop biological and agronomic risk models based on changes in practices and associate them with an actuarial model of economic losses to inform decision-makers and potentially allow for the insurance of these risks. The impact of several components on the agro-ecosystem must be considered: climate, bio-aggressors, agricultural practices, and their interactions, with all associated uncertainties and risks of error. The goal of these steps is to verify or construct the conditions for the insurability of both the transition and the crop after the "mature" adoption of the new practice. Several modeling approaches are available, ranging from more mechanistic to data-driven, all of which are already prepared by the research teams and will be consolidated by this thesis. Two scales are considered: the crop and the cropping system. The choice between models will be made pragmatically to achieve a replicable approach for risk analysis of agroecological changes. This approach will also result in digital tools integrated into the already existing solutions of the partners, both in terms of proposed insurance modalities and risk description for field actors. The originality of this work lies in addressing the evolution of climatic and health risks on crops through multi-year agroecological dynamics and in analyzing the effectiveness and interest of innovations using economic modeling.